The industry is going through a rough period as big numbers are dependent on holidays and when the numbers come on holidays they are not actually as big as they can be whether it is Tiger Zinda Hai, Dangal or PK. This can be seen by the results in the box office results of 2018. What always tell is the footfalls and the average ticket price which show the real picture rather than nett total or gross total.

Tiger Zinda Hai did extremely well to do what it did but it was a dream run with no film in the way and the big holidays falling in the right place. The Christmas releases always have a dream with little competition for weeks but sometimes the holidays dont fall on the right day like they did not for Dangal but did for a Dhoom 3, PK and Tiger Zinda Hai..

The main thing is the open run for weeks over Christmas but with main holidays falling on Sunday for Dangal it would have cost the film around 15 crore nett which is 4% of its total business.

Tiger Zinda Hai got 3.09 crore footfalls over its run on Christmas with multiplex rates across the country at the highest point ever. Now Bahubali - The Conclusion in Hindi got 5.25 crore in April which is nothing like the Christmas period in terms of footfalls.

The question now is what would have Bahubali - The Conclusion earned if it had released when Tiger Zinda Hai did. The first point is would Bahubali - The Conclusion got more footfalls if it had released on Christmas 2017 compared with April 2017 and common sense says it would have. We are giving it the minimum and saying it would have done 10% more footfalls due to the extended holiday period, it would have done more for sure but this at least would have been there.

This becomes 5.78 crore footfalls and then we apply the ATP (Average Ticket Price) of Tiger Zinda Hai which is INR 138.70 and this gives a GROSS figure of 801 crore. The other factor that is different from the time of Bahubali - The Conclusion is that it was entertainment tax then but on Christmas 2017 it was GST. 

So if we apply the ratios of how Bahubali - The Conclusion formed its business in terms of ticket rates it gives a NETT GROSS of 635-640 crore nett. This is the minimum number that Bahubali - The Conclusion would have done if it released when Tiger Zinda Hai. In all likelihood it would probably go in excess of 700 crore nett as the footfalls will be higher then we have estimated but a 635 crore nett number is there on a worse case scenario.

The point that a true historic great blockbuster has the potential to do 700 crore nett or even more on the right date today. The problem going forward is the right date is Christmas and someone is going to have to be very lucky to have this potential 700 crore nett plus window to themselves. 

This year there are 3-4 films being aimed at the Xmas period as the window has been seen. Its not just the Dangals and Tigers that show the potential of this window but even Dilwale and Bajirao Mastaani where one film is not appreciated and the other is a regional blockbuster but still 320 crore nett plus comes between them.

A film might be able to get this window if everyone sees it as too huge to take even but even then its very difficult that the New Years week being left to the Xmas release no matter how how big the Xmas release is. Simply because New Years week is far better than any random week of the year even if a huge blockbuster released the week before.