Diwali has again not lived up to the expectations with neither Ae Dil Hai Mushkil or Shivaay becoming big grossers with the former just about becoming a hit but with huge help from the recoveries in the Overseas market while Shivaay is an average fare. The last time Diwali saw a blockbuster way back in 2010 with Golmaal 3 and before that was Om Shanti Om in 2007. In 90's the biggest blockbusters tended to come on Diwali every year be it Dilwale Dulhania Le Jayenge (1995), Raja Hindustani (1996), Dil To Pagal Hai (1997), Kuch Kuch Hota Hai (1998), Hum Saath Saath Hain (1999) and Mohabatein (2000).

All these films have an inflation adjusted nett gross of 250 crore nett or more. It could be the period is not as lucrative today as the two other main festive periods of Eid and Xmas or the films have not been good enough content wise. The latter is probably the main reason as if Eid and Xmas can easily go past 300 crore nett then surely Diwali should be 250 crore nett at least if not 300 crore nett. The potential of Diwali will only be known when that all India blockbuster comes on Diwali.

The business model today means that a blockbuster film is only going to come on a holiday period unless its an outstanding film and these are not being made today so because of this it becomes very important to have big numbers on Diwali, not just Diwali but Eid, Xmas and other holidays periods. This years Diwali releases are not bad with Ae Dil Hai Mushkil set to have a worldwide theatrical share of 85 crore and having total recoveries of around 150 crore but the domestic business on Diwali should have been more as 100 crore nett from this would have been expected on any other day let alone Diwali due to the super hit music and names involved in the film.

Shivaay has gone the Jai Ho and Dilwale way with the distributors losing due to high prices paid but its not too bad on its cost with recovery from all revenue sources set to be around 100 crore and a big rebate from Bulgaria to come. The difference between Jai Ho and Dilwale is that the profits made by makers could compensate the distributors if the makers wanted to and the Dilwale makers did but with Shivaay the recoveries including rebate are not high enough to do that. Even though it had just one Ajay Devgn and nothing else much going for it, a 100 crore nett grosser should have been there on Diwali.